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  • What does today’s Bank of Canada announcement mean for Canadians?

    The Bank of Canada announced today that the interest rate would stay the same, at 1.25%.

    Factors impacting the unchanged rate included trade policies with the U.S., the housing market getting ahead of demand, and a slower GDP fourth quarter.

    All of these things showed the bank that Canada's economy is far from red-hot and doesn't need a cooldown just yet.

    The U.S.'s tariffs on aluminum (10%) and steel (25%) are also adding to the uncertainty in Canada's economy. While there's a possibility that Canada could be exempt, it's already creating unrest in the market.

    "I think that it is affecting Canada. There is a lot of money on the sidelines that are deciding to hold off or they (businesses) are deciding to do it somewhere else," said Robert Oleksyn, senior wealth manager with Valley First Credit Union.

    "Business leaders, investors, people that have the surplus capital—they are going to do something with it and they often have shareholder obligations to do it wisely—so they are not going to run in and plunk down $1M without being really positive about the million dollars."

    The federal budget and provincial budget announcements have also led to new provincial policies and mortgage rules. Some Canadians are pleased with new policies like foreign buyers and speculation taxes, thinking it will even out the housing market. However, others fear it will drive potential buyers away.  

    "Whenever you tax something, that makes it more expensive and of course people are rethinking their decisions. If that happens in Kelowna, someone who is perhaps thinking of moving here maybe won't," said Oleksyn. 

    But housing isn't the only market where Canada could lose buyers to the U.S. There's also a greater incentive for businesses to deal with the U.S. 

    "They (U.S.) are certainly dropping tax rates and their personal tax rates are already far lower and tiered at different levels.

    "I mean if people don't allocate new capital to Canada or B.C., there will be fewer jobs, and of course, wanting to have a job because I am not retired that is an important thing to me. 

    Currently, a lot of people are questioning where to put their capital, whether to expand or to hold off. Apart from having a crystal ball, it could take some time to see how the market responds to new monetary policies mixed with turbulent political decisions hanging in the balance.

    "The markets are saying they are expecting some rate increases but when is the thing. Is it going to be next time or a year from now, or two years from now – who knows," he said.

    The next scheduled rate announcement is April 18, 2018.

    Prior to seeing a rate change, Oleksyn says the bank will need proof that the market is getting too hot.

    "They only put up interest rates to slow the economy. It's sort of like the break in the gas on a car," he said. "You don't want it too hot because inflation goes up, but if it's too low, you are not getting any growth or inflation and those are less desirable than having your average term." 

    When you ask senior investment advisor of Hollis Wealth, Jason Del Vicario, he sees one more increase happening in 2018.

    "I think Bank of Canada rates will rise maybe once in 2018. This is a contrarian view," said Del Vicario, as he says many economists and analysts are expecting Canada to keep step with the U.S. "But the recent GDP figures lead me to conclude they will remain more cautious than the market is expecting." 

    Overall the health of Canada's economy is being impacted by a number of factors and the more each country does business on a global level, the more factors there are, impacting each other's economy.

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